This applied research project answers a simple question: how big will the Manitoba food and beverage processing industry be in 2020? Given the current, considerable size of the sector, finding that answer requires some effort.
The food and beverage processing (FBP) industry is a major economic contributor, representing 28% of all manufacturing revenue in the province and 15% of all exports. This industry employees more than 12,000 people, representing nearly one of every four persons (22%) employed in manufacturing. Nationally, Manitoba’s FBP represents 5% of sales within the national industry and 7% of international exports.
Reviewing existing food and beverage sales data, we find that the recent growth in sales could form a basis for estimating sales in 2020. Cognizant that the industry’s many sectors may grow or decline independent of one another, this project will need to examine all parts to understand the industry as a whole.
An important consideration is the proportion of large companies to small businesses, and their resulting shares of sales. Equally important is how the various sectors grow. One may add another shift of workers within an existing manufacturing facility, enabling a relatively fast spike in sales. Another may require significant investment – building a new plant and recruiting a significant number of new employees – to achieve measured growth though a longer series of stages. Still another sector’s sales may parallel population growth.
At best, detailed data contributes a snapshot of the past and present sales and related exports. To create a data base, we will validate estimates of projected sales to 2020 with industry , the working knowledge held by experts in the various sectors and for the entire industry. These considerations of growth are essential in estimating food and beverage industry sales for the future.
Within the scope of this project, four objectives are pursued:
- Identifying trends in sales and distinguishing key drivers of the FBP industry;
- Envisioning two to three scenarios for industry growth to 2020;
- Identifying opportunities and challenges across the various industry sectors; and
- Noting public policy implications related to any issues which may inhibit growth.
This report describes the research methods, findings and concludes with growth pathways for the FBP industry to 2020.